The gambler’s fallacy expects one result to follow, followed by a different result. On the other hand, inferring an unknown past event from a known subsequent event is called a retrospective gambler’s fallacy.
For example, a retrospective gambler’s fallacy is to presume that a coin toss that you haven’t seen before would have been flipped when you saw a coin toss in a row.
Gambler’s Fallacy Fallacy
In addition to the gambler’s fallacy, there is the “gambler’s fallacy”. This is a phenomenon that occurs when you believe too much in the law of large numbers, and when you believe too much in objectivity, you move in an unexpected direction and you are unexpected.
It’s a problem that gambler’s fallacy depends on experience and subjectivity, but it’s also a problem that it’s too objective.
Hot hand fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy can be thought of as a response to the “hot hand fallacy.” The hot hand fallacy is expressed in basketball.
Usually, the gambler’s fallacy is that when the same result comes out in succession, you expect different results after that. On the other hand, the hot hand fallacy refers to the theory that people tend to predict the same outcome as the previous event, and as a result, believe that high scorers will continue to score.
Gambler’s Fallacy in Community Cards
Gambler’s fallacy is likely to work when guessing community cards in poker. For example, if there was an A on the community card in a row in the previous game, depending on the player, there must be an A on the next community card because A often appears today. Therefore, in the next game, A will not be included in the community card, and so on.
In poker, you need to develop a strategy depending on which cards are included in the community cards. As a result, gambler’s fallacy can lead to subjective guessing of community cards, which can lead to inaccurate strategies.
When playing poker, some players are on and some are not. After playing the game a few times, it’s natural to see which player has the luck.
It’s true that things are going well depending on the day, but it’s a gambler’s fallacy to predict the winner of the next game.
For example, if a good player is at the same table, he may be active today, so don’t raise, stop bluffing, and so on. These are typical examples of gambler’s fallacy.
Also, when you are in good shape, you may misunderstand that it will continue in the next game, and you may take an aggressive action.